Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Lowe singled to right, Taveras scored, Seager to second.3–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 9Heim homered to right (351 feet).2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Seager hit sacrifice fly to center, Taveras scored.1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pasquantino doubled to left, Witt Jr. scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to center, Witt Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML TEX -135 / KC +115
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 57.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −5 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +54 Elo | TEX 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 13th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 13–64th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–18 | 22–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 14–19–1 | 12–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 6–2 KC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.