Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Perez homered to left (386 feet), Witt Jr. scored and Pasquantino scored.1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pasquantino singled to right, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to third.1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 7Witt Jr. singled to right, Isbel scored, Garcia to third.1–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 7Isbel singled to center, Blanco scored.1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 5Renfroe homered to left (373 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Seager singled to left, Semien scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML TEX -105 / KC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- KC: Elo 44.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.2 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −1 | TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +38 Elo | TEX 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.11st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 12th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 12–53rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–17 | 21–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 13–18–1 | 11–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 5–1 KC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.