Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting4-6, 2 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting3-4
- Michael WachaPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran singled to left, Taveras scored.15–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play15–4
- 9Semien grounded out to shortstop, Heim scored, Taveras to third.14–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 113–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging13–4
- 9Taveras doubled to right, Jankowski scored, Heim to third.13–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul12–4
- 9Jankowski singled to right, Smith scored.12–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play12–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking11–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 111–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–4
- 9Smith tripled to right, Carter scored.11–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 210–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 8Hampson reached on infield single to third, Massey scored.10–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 210–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 7Carter scored on Selby wild pitch and Jankowski scored on throwing error by catcher Perez, Heim to third on wild pitch by Selby.10–3
- 7Carter scored on Selby wild pitch and Jankowski scored on throwing error by catcher Perez, Heim to third on wild pitch by Selby.10–3
- 7Jankowski grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Lowe scored, Smith out at second, Carter to third.8–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 17–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 6Pasquantino singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.7–3
- 6Pitch 10 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball 37–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking7–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 50%
- ML TEX -110 / KC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- KC: Elo 45.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -100
- TEX -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +3 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +32 Elo | TEX 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.01st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 14th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 13–53rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–18 | 22–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 13–19–1 | 11–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 5–2 KC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.