Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rooker homered to center (427 feet), Toro scored and Bleday scored.4–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 6Langeliers tripled to center, Davis scored.4–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 5B. Harris homered to left center (428 feet).4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 4Langeliers doubled to left, Davis scored and Rooker scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Taveras homered to center (411 feet), Duran scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Semien homered to left (412 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Langeliers homered to left (375 feet), Rooker scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Heim hit sacrifice fly to right, Semien scored, Seager to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML TEX -120 / OAK +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 61.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- OAK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +3 | TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +80 Elo | TEX 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.625th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 9–1223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–19 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders | 15–21–1 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 12–6 OAK in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.