Miami Marlins at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Vidal BrujanBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bruján doubled to left, Gordon scored.1–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Ruiz reached on infield single to shortstop, Schuemann scored on error, Ruiz safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Anderson.0–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Rooker homered to center (440 feet), Toro scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 56%
- ML MIA +120 / OAK -140
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- OAK: Elo 50.8%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- OAK -128
- MIA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.5 – 4.0 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | 0 | MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +6 Elo | OAK 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.129th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −1.024th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 27th of 304–9 | Road vs home | 7–921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–24 | 18–14 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–15 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 18–14–1 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–0 OAK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.