Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jacob StallingsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Josh BellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10J. Sánchez singled to left, Arraez scored, Lopez to third.4–5
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 5Tovar grounded into double play, second to shortstop to third, Cave scored, Goodman out at second, Stallings out at third.4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Fortes singled to center, Myers scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Bell homered to right (369 feet).3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Stallings homered to left center (409 feet), Montero scored and Rodgers scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1J. Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to right, De La Cruz scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Chisholm Jr. singled to left, Arraez scored, De La Cruz to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 61%
- ML COL +150 / MIA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 58.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -159
- COL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +2 | COL: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +56 Elo | MIA 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.625th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.5 | Margin | −1.928th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–13 | Road vs home | 4–1530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–15 | 9–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–14 |
| Underdog | 12–13 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 15–13 | 17–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–4 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.