Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Dane MyersBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- Roddery MunozPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Myers singled to right, Lopez scored and Rivera scored, Bruján to third.1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Díaz grounded out to third, Doyle scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5De La Cruz doubled to left, Arraez scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Arraez singled to center, Rivera scored.0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 57%
- ML COL +125 / MIA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 57.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -133
- COL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 4.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | COL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Roddery Munoz: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +52 Elo | MIA 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.625th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −2.028th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–12 | Road vs home | 3–1530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–14 | 8–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–14 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 15–12 | 17–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–3 MIA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.