Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Elehuris MonteroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching8.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Dane MyersBatting2-2, 3 RBI
- Sixto SanchezPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Myers singled to right, De La Cruz scored.6–7
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 10De La Cruz doubled to left, Anderson scored.6–6
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 36–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 26–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 10McMahon doubled to left, Bouchard scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Rivera hit sacrifice fly to right, Myers scored, Lopez to third.5–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 9J. Sánchez hit by pitch, De La Cruz scored, Lopez to second, Myers to third.5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 9Myers singled to center, Arraez scored and Bethancourt scored, De La Cruz to second.5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Arraez doubled to right, Bruján scored, Bethancourt to third.5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 1Montero homered to center (409 feet), Blackmon scored and Rodgers scored.5–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Blackmon singled to right, McMahon scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1McMahon singled to left, Tovar scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 56%
- ML COL +120 / MIA -140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 57.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -128
- COL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.0 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Sixto Sanchez: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +49 Elo | MIA 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.5 | Margin | −2.128th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–11 | Road vs home | 2–1530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–14 | 8–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 0–13 |
| Underdog | 11–12 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 14–12 | 16–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–2 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.