Pittsburgh Pirates at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bleday homered to center (417 feet), Allen scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Bleday homered to right (399 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Hayes hit sacrifice fly to right, Triolo scored, Taylor to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Nevin singled to right, Toro scored, Hernaiz to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Toro singled to right, Langeliers scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Joe homered to left (387 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 54%
- ML PIT -130 / OAK +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -119
- OAK +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 3.6 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −1 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Alex Wood: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +30 Elo | PIT 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.029th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.327th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 5–924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–16 | 16–14 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–3 OAK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.