Pittsburgh Pirates at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting1-4
- Bailey FalterPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Tyler NevinBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Nevin hit sacrifice fly to right, Ruiz scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 5Ruiz doubled to left, Hernaiz scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Schuemann hit sacrifice fly to left, Toro scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Langeliers hit sacrifice fly to center, Rooker scored, Toro to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Nevin homered to center (404 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Hayes scored on Boyle wild pitch, McCutchen to second on wild pitch by Boyle, Reynolds to third on wild pitch by Boyle.1–0
- 1Hayes scored on Boyle wild pitch, McCutchen to second on wild pitch by Boyle, Reynolds to third on wild pitch by Boyle.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML PIT -125 / OAK +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- OAK +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 3.6 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −11 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +34 Elo | PIT 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 2.929th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.527th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 15th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 4–927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–15 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–2 OAK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.