Pittsburgh Pirates at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4
- Quinn PriesterPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Tyler NevinBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8McCann singled to right, Ruiz scored.0–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Nevin scored, Toro safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Cruz, Langeliers to second, Bleday to third.0–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Nevin homered to left center (384 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Toro homered to center (406 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 50%
- ML PIT -110 / OAK -110
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- OAK: Elo 49.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- OAK -100
- PIT -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 3.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +5 | PIT: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OAK: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +5 Elo | PIT 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.029th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.225th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 18th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 6–923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–17 | 17–14 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 13–17 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–4 OAK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.