Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Abraham ToroBatting3-4
- Alex WoodPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carter scored on error, Jankowski safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Nevin, Smith safe at third on error.4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 8Seager homered to center (422 feet), Smith scored and Taveras scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5Ruiz hit sacrifice fly to center, Bleday scored, Harris to second.0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–1
- 2Hernaiz hit sacrifice fly to left, Davis scored on error, Toro safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Duran.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -125 / OAK +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- OAK +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 3.6 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +2 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Alex Wood: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +60 Elo | TEX 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 11th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 9–1017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–19 | 20–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 14–20–1 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 10–6 OAK in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.