Miami Marlins at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Darren McCaughanPitching4.2 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting3-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bruján doubled to center, Lopez scored.4–20
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–20
- 8Langeliers homered to left center (420 feet), McCann scored and Butler scored.3–20
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–20
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–20
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–20
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–20
- 8Butler singled to right, Toro scored, McCann to second.3–17
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–17
- 8De La Cruz homered to right center (386 feet), Myers scored.3–16
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–16
- 7Bleday doubled to center, Langeliers scored.1–16
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–16
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–16
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–16
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–16
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–16
- 6Harris homered to left (374 feet), Bleday scored.1–15
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–15
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–15
- 6Fortes homered to left (394 feet).1–13
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–13
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 31–13
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–13
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–13
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–13
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–13
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–13
- 4Harris homered to left (415 feet).0–13
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–13
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–13
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–13
- 3Rooker homered to left (380 feet), Nevin scored and Toro scored.0–12
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–12
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–12
- 3Toro singled to right, Harris scored and Ruiz scored, Nevin to second.0–9
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–9
- 3Bleday homered to right center (410 feet), Davis scored and Hernaiz scored.0–7
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 53%
- ML MIA +105 / OAK -125
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- OAK: Elo 50.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- OAK -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.1 – 3.4 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +7 | MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +6 Elo | OAK 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.129th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 27th of 304–10 | Road vs home | 8–918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–25 | 19–14 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–15 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 18–15–1 | 14–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–1 OAK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.