Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting4-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Brown homered to left center (383 feet), Bleday scored and Rooker scored.15–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play15–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 115–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul15–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul15–5
- 7McCann homered to center (433 feet).15–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play15–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking15–4
- 6Toro grounded out to second, Schuemann scored, B. Harris to third.15–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play15–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul15–3
- 6McCann scored on Hernández wild pitch, B. Harris to second on wild pitch by Hernández, Schuemann to third on wild pitch by Hernández.15–3
- 6McCann scored on Hernández wild pitch, B. Harris to second on wild pitch by Hernández, Schuemann to third on wild pitch by Hernández.15–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 215–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging15–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 115–2
- 4García hit sacrifice fly to right, Seager scored, Lowe to third.15–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play15–2
- 4Lowe doubled to left, Taveras scored and Semien scored, Seager to third.14–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 112–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–2
- 4Semien reached on infield single to third, Heim scored, Taveras to second.12–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–2
- 2Rooker reached on infield single to third, Schuemann scored, Toro to second, B. Harris to third.11–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 311–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 211–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 111–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–1
- 2McCann scored on error, Hernaiz safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Seager.11–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–0
- 2Semien doubled to left, Taveras scored and Heim scored.11–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 19–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–0
- 2Taveras singled to left, Smith scored, Heim to second.9–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -125 / OAK +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 56.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- OAK +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.1 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +10 | TEX: Jose Urena: team allows 1.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OAK: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +48 Elo | TEX 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 9th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 9–1121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–19 | 20–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders | 14–21–1 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 11–6 OAK in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.