Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-4
- Jose UrenaPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Doyle walked, McMahon scored, Cave to second, Rodgers to third.1–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 41–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 31–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Tovar homered to left (389 feet), Blackmon scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1García singled to right, Semien scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 58%
- ML TEX -150 / COL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 59.3%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -138
- COL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | −7 | TEX: Jose Urena: team allows 1.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +65 Elo | TEX 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.828th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 8–1019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–23 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–16 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders | 18–22–1 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–2 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.