San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Anthony MolinaPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz homered to left (410 feet), Blackmon scored.8–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–6
- 7Chapman reached on infield single to third, Conforto scored on throwing error by third baseman McMahon.8–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 37–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 6Blackmon singled to center, Bouchard scored, Beck to third.7–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 5Díaz reached on infield single to pitcher, Blackmon scored, McMahon to second, Tovar to third.7–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 5Blackmon singled to left, Beck scored.7–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 3Sabol doubled to left, Yastrzemski scored.7–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 2Doyle scored on Hicks wild pitch.6–1
- 2Doyle scored on Hicks wild pitch.6–1
- 2Wade Jr. singled to center, Ahmed scored and Lee scored.6–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Lee doubled to right, Ramos scored, Ahmed to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Ahmed sacrificed, Yastrzemski scored, Ramos to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Ramos singled to right, Chapman scored, Yastrzemski to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 60%
- ML SF -165 / COL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- SF: Elo 54.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -149
- COL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.2 – 4.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · COL: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +30 Elo | SF 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −2.329th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 26th of 307–14 | Road vs home | 5–926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–18 | 15–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–11 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders | 16–19–1 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 10–4 COL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.