Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cruz homered to right (433 feet), Reynolds scored.3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Rodgers singled to right, Montero scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 12 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball 32–0
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Montero singled to left, Díaz scored, Montero to second.2–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 6McMahon homered to right center (445 feet).1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 63%
- ML COL +160 / PIT -190
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 59.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -170
- COL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +5 | COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Martin Perez: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +65 Elo | PIT 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 64.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–14 | Road vs home | 5–723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–15 | 13–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 13–13 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–13 | 13–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–4 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.