Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting1-3
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting2-3
- Jared JonesPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suwinski singled to left, Joe scored, Cruz to second, Triolo to third.0–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 61%
- Fair odds
- PIT -170
- COL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +14 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +78 Elo | PIT 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.624th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–14 | Road vs home | 5–825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–15 | 13–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 13–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–4 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 7.