Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jacob StallingsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Suwinski singled to left, Tellez scored, Suwinski to second.3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 6Cruz homered to center (429 feet), Reynolds scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Hayes grounded out to shortstop, Joe scored, Reynolds to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Tellez grounded out to pitcher, Hayes scored, Cruz to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Bouchard homered to left (400 feet).3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Stallings homered to center (414 feet), Rodgers scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 60%
- ML COL +140 / PIT -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 58.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -149
- COL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −7 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +57 Elo | PIT 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–15 | Road vs home | 6–822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–15 | 13–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 13–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–5 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.