San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Keaton WinnPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Blackmon singled to left, Doyle scored.1–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Blackmon doubled to center, Montero scored.1–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 4Tovar doubled to left, Blackmon scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Doyle homered to center (430 feet), Bouchard scored and Rodgers scored.1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Bouchard doubled to left, Díaz scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Díaz doubled to right, McMahon scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4McMahon singled to right, Tovar scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Conforto homered to left (368 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 55%
- ML SF -135 / COL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- SF: Elo 52.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.0 – 4.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +7 | SF: Keaton Winn: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +17 Elo | SF 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.627th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −2.329th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–14 | Road vs home | 5–1027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–18 | 15–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders | 17–19–1 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 11–4 COL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.