Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Leody TaverasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Blackmon doubled to right, Doyle scored on error and Stallings scored on error, Blackmon safe at third on fielding error by right fielder García.3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Stallings singled to center, Bouchard scored and Díaz scored, Doyle to third.3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Díaz singled to center, McMahon scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 33–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7McMahon singled to center, Beck scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Taveras homered to right (389 feet).3–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 6McMahon scored on a balk, Díaz to third on a balk.2–2
- 6McMahon scored on a balk, Díaz to third on a balk.2–2
- 5Lowe singled to left, Taveras scored, Seager to second.2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Semien hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored, Taveras to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Goodman homered to left center (444 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 58%
- ML TEX -150 / COL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 61.8%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -138
- COL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.1 – 4.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −3 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +84 Elo | TEX 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.725th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.928th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 7–1023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–22 | 17–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders | 17–22–1 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–1 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.