Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Blackmon doubled to center, Cave scored and Doyle scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Blackmon scored on error, Díaz safe at first on fielding error by center fielder Taveras.2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Seager walked, Duran scored, Semien to second, Taveras to third.2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 42–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Seager homered to right center (403 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Díaz singled to right, Tovar scored.0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 64%
- ML TEX -195 / COL +165
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 65.1%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- TEX -175
- COL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.4 – 4.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +1 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +108 Elo | TEX 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −2.128th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 7th of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 6–1025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–21 | 16–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–14 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders | 17–21–1 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–0 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.