Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- David FryBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Zach RemillardBatting2-2
- Michael SorokaPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Florial doubled to left, Brennan scored, Arias to third.7–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 6Fry scored, Brennan to third on passed ball by Lee.6–0
- 6Fry scored, Brennan to third on passed ball by Lee.6–0
- 6Ramírez scored on error, Brennan safe at first on error by first baseman Vaughn, Brennan safe at second on error, Fry safe at third on error.5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Fry homered to left (405 feet), J. Naylor scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Giménez homered to right center (379 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Rocchio hit sacrifice fly to left, Florial scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 61%
- ML CLE -170 / CHW +145
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.5%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -154
- CHW +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.2 – 4.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −19 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +60 Elo | CLE 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −2.129th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 8–1226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–15 | 20–20 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 19–20 |
| Overs–unders | 21–17–2 | 18–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–12 CHW in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.