Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting4-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Tyler HoltonPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pedro AvilaPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vierling singled to center, Ibáñez scored and Pérez scored.11–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–7
- 7Vilade singled to left, Rogers scored.9–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–7
- 4Vierling grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Ibáñez scored, Pérez out at second.8–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–7
- 3Vilade singled to left, Greene scored and Torkelson scored.7–7
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 15–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 2J. Naylor homered to right (407 feet), Ramírez scored.5–7
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 2Ramírez singled to center, Rocchio scored and Florial scored.5–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 2Florial doubled to right, Bo Naylor scored, Rocchio to third.5–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 2Ibáñez homered to right (367 feet), Báez scored and Kelly scored.5–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Báez singled to center, Rogers scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Brennan doubled to center, J. Naylor scored and Giménez scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Ibáñez homered to left (388 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 56%
- ML DET +120 / CLE -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −4 | DET: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +36 Elo | CLE 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 12th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 11–54th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–19 | 25–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–14 | 11–7 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–18 | 18–15–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 9–5 CLE in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.