Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Triston McKenziePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ramírez homered to right (344 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Brennan singled to right, Florial scored, J. Naylor thrown out at third.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Greene homered to center (424 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML DET +100 / CLE -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 57.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.7 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +6 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +52 Elo | CLE 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 9th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 10–55th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–19 | 25–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–14 | 11–6 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–17 | 18–14–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 9–4 CLE in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.