Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-3
- Reid DetmersPitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bo Naylor homered to right center (392 feet), Ramírez scored, Fry scored and Freeman scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 5Neto singled to left, Adell scored, Moniak to third.1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Laureano homered to left (387 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Hedges homered to left (361 feet), Freeman scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML LAA +100 / CLE -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.7 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −11 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +35 Elo | CLE 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 18th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 8–57th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–16 | 23–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–15 | 17–13–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–3 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.