Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Guardians- David FryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rocchio singled to center, Laureano scored.4–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Fry homered to right (334 feet).4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Giménez grounded out to second, Rocchio scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 4Báez hit sacrifice fly to right, Torkelson scored, McKinstry to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4McKinstry doubled to right, Keith scored, Torkelson to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Keith singled to right, Ibáñez scored and Carpenter scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Hedges singled to left, Fry scored and J. Naylor scored, Brennan to second.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML DET +105 / CLE -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.6 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +13 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +39 Elo | CLE 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 11–66th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–19 | 25–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–14 | 11–8 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 18–18 | 19–15–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 10–5 CLE in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.