Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Triston McKenziePitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4
- Mike ClevingerPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to left, Vaughn scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4J. Naylor homered to left (352 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Maldonado singled to left, Lopez scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Lopez doubled to right, DeJong scored on error, Lopez safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Brennan.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 61%
- ML CLE -175 / CHW +150
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.1%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -159
- CHW +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +11 | CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +57 Elo | CLE 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −2.229th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 7–1226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–14 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–10 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 18–20 |
| Overs–unders | 21–16–2 | 18–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–11 CHW in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.