Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Tommy PhamBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8J. Naylor homered to right center (440 feet).2–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 8Ramírez homered to right center (409 feet).1–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pham singled to left, DeJong scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2DeJong singled to left, Ramos scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Vaughn doubled to center, Pham scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML CLE -155 / CHW +135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- CLE -143
- CHW +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 3.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +15 | CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +46 Elo | CLE 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 2.930th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −2.430th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 5th of 3012–7 | Road vs home | 5–1228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–12 | 17–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–9 | — |
| Underdog | 14–3 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders | 20–15–2 | 17–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 7–9 CHW in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.