Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting3-3, 4 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4
- Michael LorenzenPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramírez singled to center, Freeman scored and Giménez scored.7–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 9Giménez doubled to left, Rocchio scored, Freeman to third.5–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 8Giménez scored on Latz wild pitch, J. Naylor to second on wild pitch by Latz, Ramírez to third on wild pitch by Latz.4–0
- 8Giménez scored on Latz wild pitch, J. Naylor to second on wild pitch by Latz, Ramírez to third on wild pitch by Latz.4–0
- 8Ramírez singled to center, Freeman scored and Rocchio scored, Ramírez to second, Giménez to third.3–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 8Rocchio singled to center, Florial scored, Rocchio to second.1–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML CLE -115 / TEX -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 46.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −6 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +27 Elo | TEX 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 10–913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–15 | 18–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–11 | 8–17 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–18–2 | 18–23–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–3 TEX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.