Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Alex KirilloffBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Guardians- David FryBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Triston McKenziePitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramírez homered to right (383 feet).2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8Farmer doubled to center, Martin scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Fry homered to left (364 feet), J. Naylor scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Kirilloff homered to right center (402 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML MIN +105 / CLE -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +11 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +19 Elo | CLE 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 12–64th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–21 | 28–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 12–11 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 16–5 |
| Overs–unders | 20–23 | 22–20–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–9 CLE in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.