Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 13Lowe hit by pitch, Jankowski scored, Seager to second, Duran to third.2–3
- 13Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Semien scored, Seager to second.2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Adell homered to right center (384 feet).2–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6García homered to left (410 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Ward homered to left (406 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML LAA +105 / TEX -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.1 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −15 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jose Urena: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +59 Elo | TEX 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 17th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 11–1215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–22 | 19–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–11 | 9–20 |
| Underdog | 23–11 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 26–19 | 20–25–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 7–7 TEX in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.