St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pillar singled to left, Ward scored.7–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 7Burleson homered to right (375 feet), Arenado scored.7–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 37–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 5Ward hit sacrifice fly to center, Schanuel scored.5–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4O'Hoppe homered to center (409 feet), Calhoun scored and Pillar scored.5–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 3Schanuel singled to left, Tucker scored.5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 3Pagés doubled to left, Carlson scored, Goldschmidt scored and Burleson scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 15–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 2Siani grounded into fielder's choice to third, Gorman scored on throwing error by third baseman Tucker, Siani second.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Carlson scored on Detmers wild pitch, Gorman to third on wild pitch by Detmers.1–0
- 2Carlson scored on Detmers wild pitch, Gorman to third on wild pitch by Detmers.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 56%
- ML STL -140 / LAA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- STL: Elo 50.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -128
- LAA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 3.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −2 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +2 Elo | STL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 17th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 5–1530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–21 | 20–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 0–11 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 16–22–2 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 1–3 LAA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.