St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hoskins homered to center (407 feet), Contreras scored and Bauers scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Sánchez hit by pitch, Adames scored, Hoskins to second, Bauers to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Gorman doubled to right, Herrera scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Nootbaar singled to center, Carpenter scored and Gorman scored, Winn to third.2–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Bauers hit by pitch, Dunn scored, Contreras to second, Perkins to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 62%
- ML STL +155 / MIL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -166
- STL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +14 | STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +101 Elo | MIL 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–12 | Road vs home | 9–711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–20 | 22–16 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 14–21–2 | 23–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–13 MIL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.