Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adames homered to left (392 feet), Contreras scored and Sánchez scored.6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Pasquantino singled to center, Witt Jr. scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Monasterio singled to right, Perkins scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Perez doubled to left, Pasquantino scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pasquantino doubled to center, Isbel scored and Witt Jr. scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Isbel singled to left, Melendez scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Ortiz homered to left center (412 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Hoskins homered to center (423 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 54%
- ML MIL +110 / KC -130
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- KC: Elo 47.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -119
- MIL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +18 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +19 Elo | MIL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–7 | Road vs home | 14–75th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–15 | 23–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 17–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–15 | 12–23–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–1 KC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.