Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Joe RossPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bauers singled to center, Adames scored.3–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 8Adames singled to center, Contreras scored.2–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Contreras singled to left, Chourio scored.1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 6Morel homered to center (413 feet).0–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML MIL +100 / CHC -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 53.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 3.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −35 | −19 | MIL: Joe Ross: team allows 1.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CHC: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +23 Elo | CHC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.414th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3012–4 | Road vs home | 10–31st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–14 | 21–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 15–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–12 | 14–17–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–6 CHC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.