Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting1-4
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Morel singled to center, Tauchman scored.0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Swanson homered to center (399 feet).0–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Hoerner scored on Peralta wild pitch.0–3
- 5Hoerner scored on Peralta wild pitch.0–3
- 5Hoerner doubled to center, Amaya scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 56%
- ML MIL -140 / CHC +120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 50.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -128
- CHC +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.5 – 3.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +8 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +3 Elo | MIL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.415th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3013–5 | Road vs home | 11–41st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–14 | 21–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 15–5 |
| Overs–unders | 19–13 | 15–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 8–7 CHC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.