Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Garcia singled to center, Frazier scored and Velázquez scored, Blanco to second, Garcia to second, Blanco safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Perkins.2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Massey homered to right center (412 feet).2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Sánchez homered to left center (427 feet), Adames scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 55%
- ML MIL +115 / KC -135
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.3 pts
- KC: Elo 43.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +3 | MIL: Bryse Wilson: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +49 Elo | MIL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3013–6 | Road vs home | 13–76th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–15 | 23–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 17–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–14 | 12–22–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–0 KC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.