Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RossPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras grounded out to first, Dunn scored, Turang to third.4–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 9Turang doubled to right, Sánchez scored, Dunn to third.3–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 8Fermin singled to center, Renfroe scored, Hampson to second, Frazier to third.2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 8Frazier singled to center, Blanco scored, Renfroe to second.2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 8Witt Jr. homered to left center (419 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Sánchez homered to right center (401 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Massey hit sacrifice fly to right, Witt Jr. scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Massey hit sacrifice fly to right, Witt Jr. scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to center, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Contreras doubled to center, Turang scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML MIL +105 / KC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- KC: Elo 48.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | +1 | MIL: Joe Ross: team allows 1.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +10 Elo | MIL 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3014–7 | Road vs home | 14–87th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–15 | 23–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 15–6 | 17–7 |
| Overs–unders | 20–15 | 13–23–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–1 KC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.