New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose ButtoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nootbaar homered to center (423 feet).7–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 9Alonso homered to left center (411 feet).7–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 16–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 6Burleson homered to right (354 feet).6–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 5Martinez singled to center, Alonso scored.6–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Alonso doubled to center, Lindor scored and Marte scored.5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Nimmo homered to center (440 feet), McNeil scored and Nido scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Burleson singled to right, Contreras scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Arenado hit sacrifice fly to left, Nootbaar scored, Contreras to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Donovan homered to center (407 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML NYM +105 / STL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- STL: Elo 44.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 4.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −14 | NYM: Jose Butto: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +38 Elo | NYM 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 15th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 6–1026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–17 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–17 | 11–21–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 6–5 STL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.