New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Nimmo homered to right (415 feet).4–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 6Herrera doubled to center, Goldschmidt scored and Contreras scored, Herrera out stretching at third.3–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Contreras doubled to left, Fermín scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 5Lindor hit sacrifice fly to right, Nimmo scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 5Marte grounded out to second, Nido scored, Nimmo to third.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Stewart doubled to center, Lindor scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML NYM +115 / STL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- STL: Elo 50.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- NYM +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +5 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +4 Elo | STL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 18th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 6–924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–17 | 17–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16 | 11–20–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 5–5 STL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.