St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Contreras singled to center, Turang scored.1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 5Yelich tripled to right, Contreras scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Ortiz homered to center (408 feet).1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Nootbaar homered to center (424 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Bauers homered to right (417 feet).0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Hoskins homered to right center (386 feet), Yelich scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Contreras scored on Gray wild pitch, Yelich to third on wild pitch by Gray.0–1
- 1Contreras scored on Gray wild pitch, Yelich to third on wild pitch by Gray.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML STL -135 / MIL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.8 pts
- STL: Elo 44.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 3.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −25 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 1.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +39 Elo | MIL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 7–715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–18 | 20–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–21–2 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–11 MIL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.