St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gorman homered to right center (391 feet).2–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–11
- 7Bauers tripled to center, Chourio scored and Frelick scored.1–11
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–11
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 21–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–9
- 7Frelick singled to center, Adames scored and Contreras scored, Chourio to third.1–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 31–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 7Burleson doubled to right, Herrera scored.1–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 5Hoskins reached on infield single to shortstop, Adames scored.0–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Adames doubled to right, Yelich scored and Contreras scored, Adames to third.0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 5Yelich reached on bunt single to third, Turang scored, Contreras to second.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Turang doubled to left, Bauers scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4Hoskins singled to left, Contreras scored on error and Yelich scored on fielding error by left fielder Nootbaar.0–2
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML STL +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Robert Gasser (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +88 Elo | MIL 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.710th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 309–11 | Road vs home | 8–713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–19 | 21–16 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 13–21–2 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–12 MIL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.