Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Adam FrazierBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Frazier homered to right (364 feet), Hampson scored.2–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Adell homered to center (436 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML KC -125 / LAA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- KC: Elo 49.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 4.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −1 | KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +6 Elo | LAA 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.124th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 15th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 4–1229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–14 | 18–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 17–7 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 15–23–1 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–4 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.