Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tucker hit sacrifice fly to left, Adell scored.10–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 210–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–3
- 8Hampson doubled to left, Blanco scored.10–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging9–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 29–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 7Schanuel hit sacrifice fly to right, Neto scored, Guillorme to third.9–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 39–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 29–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking9–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 7Tucker walked, Adell scored, Guillorme to second, Neto to third.9–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 49–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 39–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking9–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 29–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 19–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 7Guillorme walked, O'Hoppe scored, Neto to second, Adell to third.9–1
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball 49–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 39–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 29–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–0
- 7Massey grounded into fielder's choice to second, Pasquantino scored, Perez out at second.9–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–0
- 6Garcia doubled to left, Blanco scored and Hampson scored.8–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 52%
- ML KC -120 / LAA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- KC: Elo 47.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +6 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +21 Elo | LAA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 19th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 4–1129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–14 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 17–7 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders | 14–23–1 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–4 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.