Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Calhoun hit sacrifice fly to center, O'Hoppe scored, Drury to third.5–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Drury doubled to left, Pillar scored, O'Hoppe to third.4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6O'Hoppe singled to center, Ward scored, Pillar to third.3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Joe singled to right, Cruz scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Cruz doubled to right, Bart scored, Reynolds scored and McCutchen scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Adell singled to center, Drury scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Adell homered to center (407 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 56%
- ML LAA +120 / PIT -140
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -128
- LAA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +5 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PIT: Martin Perez: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +34 Elo | PIT 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.620th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–12 | Road vs home | 8–918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–19 | 15–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–17 | 15–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 3–2 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.