Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Kevin PillarBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-4
- Quinn PriesterPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8O'Hoppe reached on infield single to third, Calhoun scored, Pillar to third.9–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 8Pillar doubled to center, Schanuel scored, Calhoun to third.8–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 7Pillar homered to left (396 feet).7–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 6Schanuel singled to right, Neto scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5O'Hoppe singled to left, Calhoun scored, Pillar to second.5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5Pillar grounded into fielder's choice to third, Moniak scored, Calhoun to second, Drury out at third.4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Pillar homered to left (403 feet), Moniak scored and Calhoun scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 54%
- ML LAA +110 / PIT -130
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -119
- LAA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.6 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −8 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +31 Elo | PIT 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–12 | Road vs home | 8–815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–19 | 15–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–17 | 14–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.