Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Edward OlivaresBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Neto homered to center (408 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Olivares homered to left center (424 feet), McCutchen scored, Reynolds scored and Hayes scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 61%
- ML LAA +145 / PIT -170
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- PIT -154
- LAA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +3 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +35 Elo | PIT 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.627th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–11 | Road vs home | 7–821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–18 | 14–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–16 | 14–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–1 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.