St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Siani doubled to center, Donovan scored, Siani out stretching at third.4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Goldschmidt singled to left, Siani scored, Nootbaar to second.3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Goldschmidt homered to center (392 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Nootbaar walked, Donovan scored, Carpenter to second, Siani to third.1–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 41–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Sánchez singled to left, Adames scored, Hoskins thrown out at home.0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Ortiz grounded out to second, Yelich scored, Hoskins to second, Adames to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Hoskins walked, Contreras scored, Adames to second, Yelich to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball 40–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML STL +125 / MIL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 67.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -135
- STL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 5.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +18 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Bryse Wilson: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +128 Elo | MIL 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–13 | Road vs home | 10–79th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–21 | 23–16 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 15–21–2 | 24–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–14 MIL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.