Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7O'Hoppe doubled to left, Pillar scored and Ward scored.3–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 7Pillar singled to right, Neto scored and Paris scored, Ward to third.3–7
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 23–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 7Isbel singled to left, Velázquez scored, Hampson to second.3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 6Witt Jr. singled to right, Garcia scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 3Ward scored on Ragans wild pitch, Pillar to second on wild pitch by Ragans.1–5
- 3Ward scored on Ragans wild pitch, Pillar to second on wild pitch by Ragans.1–5
- 3Pillar singled to right, Tucker scored, Ward to third.1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Adell homered to left center (419 feet), Pillar scored and Goodrum scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Perez doubled to left, Witt Jr. scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 61%
- ML KC -175 / LAA +150
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- KC: Elo 51.7%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- KC -159
- LAA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.8 – 3.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | 0 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +11 Elo | KC 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.125th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 14th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 4–1329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–15 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 17–7 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 15–24–1 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–4 LAA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.